BJT

Blackjack EV Heatmap: Expected Value Per Hand

The strategy chart tells you what to do; this tells you how much each spot is worth. Every cell is the dollars you win or lose per $100 bet when you're dealt that hand against that upcard and play it perfectly — computed exactly by the same EV engine that grades the free blackjack trainer. Switch decks, H17/S17, and the true count to see how the value shifts. For every table rule (DAS, surrender, 6:5, and more) plus the full strategy toolkit, use the EV Heatmap tab on the Learn page.

Expected value heatmap

Decks
Soft 17
True count
Play

Hard totals

Dealer upcard
2345678910A
5
-13
-9
-5
-2
+2
-12
-19
-27
-31
-32
6
-14
-10
-7
-3
+1
-15
-22
-30
-34
-34
7
-11
-7
-4
0
+4
-7
-21
-29
-32
-35
8
-2
+1
+4
+8
+11
+8
-6
-21
-25
-27
9
+8
+13
+20
+27
+32
+18
+10
-5
-15
-12
10
+37
+42
+48
+54
+58
+41
+29
+15
+3
+3
11
+48
+53
+59
+64
+68
+47
+35
+23
+18
+12
12
-25
-23
-21
-16
-12
-21
-27
-34
-37
-38
13
-29
-25
-20
-16
-12
-27
-32
-38
-42
-43
14
-29
-25
-20
-16
-12
-33
-37
-43
-46
-47
15
-29
-25
-20
-16
-12
-37
-42
-47
-50
-50
16
-29
-25
-20
-16
-12
-41
-45
-50
-50
-50
17
-16
-12
-8
-5
-1
-11
-38
-42
-42
-50
18
+11
+14
+16
+20
+22
+40
+10
-19
-17
-22
19
+38
+39
+41
+44
+45
+61
+59
+28
+7
+19
−$79+$79

Green is profit, red is loss — the deeper the color, the bigger the swing. Cells outlined in amber have a count deviation at this true count — flip to Basic to see what it adds. Excludes dealer blackjacks and insurance.

See what every blackjack hand is worth, in dollars

The strategy chart says what to play; the EV heatmap says how much each starting hand is worth against each dealer upcard — for your exact rules and true count.

  1. Match the table

    Set decks, H17/S17, DAS, surrender, and payout so the values reflect the exact game you are studying.

  2. Read the cell

    Find your starting hand on the left and the dealer upcard on top — the cell is the dollars that spot wins or loses per $100, played perfectly.

  3. Move the true count

    Drag the count slider to watch the whole grid lift, then switch to Deviations to outline the cells where a high enough count changes the correct play.

Green vs red

A red cell isn't a mistake

Deep green hands — 11, 10, A,A, a pair of 8s against a weak dealer — are where the money is made. Deep red hands — hard 12–16 against a 7 through ace — lose no matter what you do, and perfect play just loses less. The most useful lesson on the grid is that a red cell is a bad situation played correctly, not an error.

Expected value

What the number actually means

Expected value is the long-run average: play a spot ten thousand times and the cell is what you would net per $100 each time. The house edge lives in those slightly negative cells — you give a little back on the bad spots and take it on 11s, strong pairs, and the dealer's stiff upcards.

Table rules

Every rule moves the grid

Because each number is recomputed from the rules, you can watch the edge move. Switch H17 to S17, turn surrender on, or drop the blackjack payout from 3:2 to 6:5 and the whole grid shifts — exactly the way those rules shift the house edge on a real table.

The count

Why counters raise their bet

Raise the true count and almost every cell lifts; spots that bleed money at a neutral count turn profitable once the deck is rich in tens and aces. That rising expected value is the entire reason a card counter spreads to a bigger bet as the count climbs.

Blackjack EV heatmap FAQ

What is expected value (EV) in blackjack?
Expected value is the average amount a wager wins or loses over the long run. Each cell is the dollars you would net per $100 bet on that starting hand versus that dealer upcard, played with perfect strategy and averaged over every way the hand can finish.
Why are most of the cells negative?
Blackjack carries a small built-in house edge, so most individual spots lose a little on average. You win it back on the strong hands — 11, 10, A,A, a pair of 8s — and by losing less on the unavoidable stiff hands. Counting and deviations push more cells positive as the true count rises.
How does the true count change EV?
A higher true count means more tens and aces remain, which favors the player — dealers bust more, naturals (which pay 3:2) come more often, and doubles and splits land better. Raising the count lifts almost every cell, which is why card counters increase their bet at high counts.
Does the heatmap use my exact rules?
Yes. It is computed from the rules you choose — decks, H17 vs S17, DAS, resplits, surrender, and the blackjack payout (3:2 vs 6:5) — so the values match the specific game you are studying rather than a generic table.
Is insurance included in these numbers?
No. Insurance is a separate side bet, and hands where the dealer has a natural are excluded — you never get to play them — so each cell is the EV of actually playing that hand.
How is the EV calculated?
Exactly, by the same composition-dependent EV engine that grades the trainer — not a rule of thumb. It evaluates stand, hit, double, and split for the specific cards and count, then reports the dollar value of the best play.

Knowing a spot is +EV doesn't make the right play automatic — the free blackjack trainer grades every decision live with the same engine.

Put it into practice

Knowing a spot is +EV doesn't make the right play automatic. The trainer grades every decision live, and the interactive strategy chart and deviation chart show the correct action for any rule set and count.